Calling the spread for this weekend’s biggest collegiate games
The Santa Clara
September 27, 2018
UNC + 18 vs. No. 16 Miami
This is my crazy bet of the week, because for some reason Miami is once again ranked higher in the polls than they deserve and the spread is too far in their favor. Miami hasn’t truly stepped up and played well in any of their first three games. While they currently stand No. 16 in the AP top 25 with a 3-1 record, the were smacked by the only true competition they have faced.
On top of Miami’s downfalls, North Carolina is playing good football right now. Last week they showed up big on offense and defense to come from behind and beat Pittsburgh. While the Tar Heels definitely aren’t the most talented team this year, they bounced back from their losses and show promise heading into a tough matchup against Miami.
Miami has yet to play to their full potential in the first four games. If they continue to not play their best, then the Tar Heels have a great chance to make this game very close, definitely within 18 points.
No. 5 LSU – 11.5 vs. Ole Miss
The Tigers are absolutely on fire right now. They beat Miami week one and recently beat Auburn (No. 10) with a thrilling end-of-game field goal. LSU has looked solid on both sides of the ball and they have a chip on their shoulder every time they step on the field.
Coming into the season facing major controversies within the program and losses of major contributors Shea Patterson (QB) and Van Jefferson (WR), the Ole Miss Rebels have not displayed anything worthy of acknowledgement yet this season after week one. They upset Texas Tech in their first appearance and then proceeded to get outscored by 55 to Alabama and not show too much excitement in their victory over Kent State. Facing the No. 5 ranked Tigers who have demonstrated fantastic football when it matters will be a mighty feat for the Rebels to overcome.
Even with a -11.5 spread, LSU looks optimistic to cover and completely outperform the Rebels. Hopefully it’s another great week for LSU, Geaux Tigers.
No. 12 WVU -3.5 vs. No. 25 Texas Tech
Texas Tech lost to Ole Miss week one by 20 points. Since then they have had two victories, both by double digits, and seem to be gaining momentum.
The issue is that they have not faced a great football team yet. Ole Miss is not very good this year, and Tech’s next opponent, West Virginia, is currently ranked No. 12 in the nation. The Red Raiders might come out and play their best football, but the chances of them making errors are higher than usual.
West Virginia hasn’t had to face off against any great football teams either, but they have not won by less than 26 points. Each victory the Mountaineers have displayed fantastic offense with very solid defense. The Mountaineers currently look stronger than Texas Tech, and I believe the spread has underrated WVU’s ability to score fast and often. Look for a high scoring offensive battle where WVU proves too much for Texas Tech’s defense to handle.
Texas -8.5 vs. Kansas State
I don’t usually trust Texas, especially the past few years as they have been consistently underperforming their potential, but the Longhorns have a major chance to show how they can play against Kansas State. The past two weeks they beat USC and TCU, both by a considerable amount (23 and 15), and each major win has made the Longhorns even more confident in their own ability.
If they win big over Kansas State this week, it will only amplify their mentality and Texas could be headed towards a great bowl game this year.
Kansas State has not impressed anyone this season, and they currently stand at 2-2. Their losses were both substantial, and in each game against ranked opponents they have not looked like they can get their offense going whatsoever.
I don’t believe this Texas game will prove any different. Look for the Longhorns to win this one, hopefully by double digits.
No. 4 Ohio State – 3.5 vs. No. 9 Penn State
This is Penn State’s first true test of the season, and Ohio State is never a good test to start with. Penn State has beaten App State, Pittsburgh, Kent State and Illinois and currently sits at 4-0. Ohio State’s one tough matchup was a victory over TCU 40-28 and they are also 4-0.
Big news coming into this week is Ohio State’s loss of their best player, DE Nick Bosa. While this news could mean Penn State can expose Ohio State’s run defense, the Buckeyes still have a talented defense and a lights out offense who has yet to score below 40 points.
James Franklin and the Penn State Nittany Lions sit at No. 9 in the AP top 25, but this will be their first game against a ranked opponent. They travel into Ohio Stadium where the Buckeyes are feeling good and playing better.
Even with Urban Meyer’s suspension, Ohio State has shown dominance in their first four games, and there is no reason to believe they won’t show up and play great football. If Penn State can play their best in this first major test then it will be a close one, but I still believe Ohio State -3.5 is the way to go on this matchup.
Contact Wylie Lowe at email@example.com or call (408) 554-4852.