News cycles in California are dominated by the foreboding “super” El Niño, set to bring a wet winter to the West Coast. For one area in Santa Clara County, this threatens the possibility of intense flooding—and it isn’t the first time.

El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when water around the equator warms up, releasing heat into the atmosphere. This ultimately shifts global weather patterns, and is classified as strong when water temperatures around the equator are more than 2 degrees warmer than usual. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2026 El Niño has an 83% chance of being classified as very strong.

Alviso is a district in San Jose, located at the lowest point of the San Francisco bay. The district ranges from 8 to 13 feet under sea level, putting it at risk for extreme flooding during the El Niño weather pattern taking effect this year.

Nora Rodriguez was living in Alviso during the big flood of ’83, another strong El Niño year. She saw people standing on Grand boulevard, tossing sandbags in an attempt to prevent the flooding as water from Coyote Creek rushed down through Grand Blvd into Alviso.

“A lot of the guys were just tossing them on top of each other, trying to build a wall, but that water just came too fast from Coyote Creek,” said Rodriguez. “It just came too fast. And everybody was just like, ‘Run.’”

A 1983 flood report notes that floodwaters came through Grand Avenue and entered Alviso on March 1 at 6 p.m. According to Rodriguez, stop signs in the lower elevated parts of Alviso were completely underwater, and the local church was almost completely overtaken by the floodwater.

“That thing was totally, completely, full of water,” said Rodriguez. “All you saw was just the roof of it.”

History San Jose has archival photos showing the destruction of the first flood, including shots of the old post office halfway submerged, and almost the entire first story of Vahl’s, the oldest diner in Santa Clara County, immersed underwater.

Some Alviso residents worry the community is not prepared for the possible incoming floods, and worry what another aggressive El Niño will bring.

Alviso in Action—a community resistance group dealing primarily with environmental issues—is helping prepare residents for El Niño through workshops preparing emergency kits. This includes a “to go” kit, which is for residents to take when they evacuate, and a “stay” kit, which residents would use if they were trapped in their home. But an evacuation point is still unknown.

“There isn’t a real place where we can go as a community in case of flooding,” said Jose Villa, one of the Alviso in Action founders. “We kind of just have to figure it out. We’re working on projects to try to figure out all these things.”

Currently there is no official community wide evacuation plan for Alviso residents, or district-wide communication around flood preparation.

Without a proper plan in place, some Alviso residents are turning to preparations of their own. For resident Norman Colby, cleaning the storm drains near his house is as good a solution as any to get ready for possible extreme weather.

“I know when to run,” said Colby. “I’m not worried about getting out, because I pay pretty close attention to the weather.”

As part of a senior capstone project, four Santa Clara University environmental studies students have committed to help Alviso with flood preparation, including the development of an evacuation plan. The senior capstone is a two-quarter class taught by professor and department Chair Christopher Bacon, where the goal is for student teams to produce valuable research towards an environmental community issue.

The group proposed their project to the Alviso community in a monthly meeting on Wednesday, Nov. 4, partnered between Climate Resilient Communities and Alviso in Action. The partnership between the organizations is called United Alviso for Change.

“We can plan everything in this room together,” said Kamille Lang, an employee of CRC, during the meeting. “You will always verify the plan, and the plan has to go out broader to the community, so everyone knows the evacuation management plan.”

One member of the capstone project, Estefana Mejia, shared the group’s goals at the meeting, noting that one major priority is to help residents find an evacuation point.

“We’re hoping to identify where residents should go during an evacuation, or a meetup point,” said Mejia. “And also, being able to create an information guideline, or an effective plan, like a communication plan, where residents can talk to each other and be able to know where to go before, during, or even after emergencies.”

Some members have voiced concern about the timeline of the plan. Due to the timeline of the capstone courses, the fall quarter will be a soft launch of the plan—preliminary research, introducing the project and organizing information. Winter quarter, the second half of the course, is when tangible results, such as a full evacuation plan and practice evacuations, will be actualized. Many residents fear that by then, it may be too late.

“I’m worried that January will probably be, like, we’re actually evacuating,” Lang said during the meeting.

Flood prevention measures in Alviso have improved over time, which could decrease the risk. An Alviso storm pump station on the corner of Gold and Catherine St was put into operation around 2019, along with the restoration of the old Gold St Pump station. Ahead of the El Niño season, residents are hoping for the best.

“If we get El Niño like we’re supposed to, it’s gonna put it to the test,” said Colby. “And yes, I hope it works. Because if it doesn’t, I’ll be floating back there.”