North Korea Suffers from Little Man Syndrome

By Jonathan Tomczak

In recent weeks, North Korea has dominated the news with ever-escalating threats against South Korea, Japan and the U.S. While there is reason for concern - as there should be when threats are made by parties with nuclear weapons - a closer look indicates that this is little more than the same old bluster.

It's important to remember the context of the situation. The initial threats from Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, who took over the country when his father died in December 2011, were because of military exercises in which the U.S. and South Korea are partners, and were announced well in advance. This required a response from the U.S., which required a response from North Korea, which required a response from South Korea, which required a statement from Japan.

Many have been worried by some of the moves North Korea has made, such as cutting off a hotline to the South and shutting down a joint factory just north of the demilitarized zone, but nothing they have done now is anything they never did before. Same old, same old.

Thus far, at least. 

The moves have been the same, but the players are not. South Korea's prime minister, Jung Hong-won, campaigned on a platform promising retaliation if North Korea repeated its actions last year, when it sank two South Korean ships and  killed several sailors. Japan recently underwent elections, China's transitioned to a new premier and President Obama has made the Pacific Rim a new priority of foreign relations. 

Finally, there is Kim Jong-un himself, who is barely 30 years old and has never held a military command before, let alone an entire country. There is no way to measure the internal politics of North Korea, nor to what lengths he would have to go in order to prevent a coup.

That lack of information is central to any North Korean crisis. What might be influencing decisions inside Pyongyang? Certainly, any declaration of war would spell destruction for North Korea. 

Even China, its longtime ally, is trying to stave off war, if only to prevent a U.S. ally encroaching on their borders. Only a madman intent on taking North Korea down with him would start such a conflict. Is that what we are seeing? Is it an attempt to get South Korea or Japan to instigate the fight? Or is it, as in ages past, another attempt to extort aid from countries, most of whom voted time after time to sanction North Korea?

I don't believe there is any single overriding factor influencing Kim Jong-un, nor do I believe he would be willing to lead his country into war. This is North Korea's version of a temper tantrum, trying to be the bully of the playground while demanding more milk from mommy at the same time. 

I'm confident that, with pressure from China and an unyielding sternness from the U.S. and South Korea, it's only a matter of time before Kim Jong-un goes back and sits in the corner, a little man on a vast world stage.