One Year Later: Reflections on California’s COVID-19 Prevention Strategy

With an end in sight, it’s time to get serious about preventing a fourth surge

One year ago, we were awkwardly stumbling through our first quarter of fully online instruction. As worldwide cases rose despite prevention efforts, it became clearer every day that we would not see a return to normal life anytime soon. 

Three hundred and sixty five days, half a million U.S. deaths and three scientific breakthrough vaccines later, we are starting to see a light at the end of this long and arduous tunnel. Thirty nine percent of California’s over-16 population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. In Santa Clara County (SCC), 22% of people over the age of 16 are fully vaccinated, and cases in SCC have been declining since mid-January. 

This is an undeniably good sign. But it is not a sign that we should abandon prevention efforts and resume normal life. 

In an emotional message delivered to the U.S. on March 29, the director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Dr. Rochelle Walensky warned of a potential fourth surge. Cases and hospitalizations have once again started to rise in regions that have lifted mask mandates and restrictions on indoor gatherings, she said. Walensky called on the American people to “just hold on a little longer.” 

Even before the development of the COVID-19 vaccine, it seems that this obsession with pushing the limits of what is safe has been the driving force behind each surge of the virus. A deadly cycle has emerged: individual and collective prevention measures drive cases down. People get comfortable, and we open up. Cases rise, and the cycle repeats.

California’s tiered “Blueprint for a Safer Economy” drives this cycle. The plan, which has been in effect since Aug. 2020, includes criteria for loosening and tightening restrictions on activities based on risk levels for the spread of the virus. When the plan was unveiled, it was, according to Governor Newsom, “a statewide, stringent and slow plan for living with COVID-19.”

At the time, it made sense to figure out a way to live with the virus. We did not have access to a vaccine, and it was painfully clear that there were attitudinal, political and logistical barriers to instating a full lockdown necessary to eradicate COVID-19 infections within the population.

But we have an incredibly efficacious vaccine now, and we are rolling it out with unprecedented speed. There may very well be an end in sight, and opening up the economy at this stage of the pandemic is like stopping for a milkshake during the last leg of a marathon. While certainly tempting, it is an unnecessary and nonsensical delay to hard-earned progress. 

Especially with the emergence of more dangerous and potentially vaccine-resistant variants of COVID-19, this is a critical moment in the pandemic. It is imperative that we do everything in our power to prevent further infections while we attempt to reach herd immunity through vaccination efforts. 

On March 23, the State of California announced that Santa Clara County met the requirements necessary to move into the Orange Tier, allowing restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and other establishments to operate indoors at higher capacity. 

The SCC Public Health department’s official release of the development included a cautionary note: “...many of these activities remain very high risk even though they are now allowed.” The communication also encouraged outdoor activities, despite detailing looser restrictions for indoor activities. These contradictions, despite being inherently nebulous, send a clear message: it is not safe to resume normal life.

Our local government ought to heed Dr. Walensky’s advice to just hold on a little longer. Easing restrictions on non-essential activities while simultaneously discouraging our participation in them is both hypocritical and unproductive. 

This country’s insistence on pushing the limits of safety protocols for the benefit of the economy has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, and it will continue to set back the progress we have made if our government lifts mask mandates and gathering restrictions too soon.