Santorum Frontrunner in California Polls

By Kurt Wagner

After last night's GOP televised debate in Arizonaa surging Rick Santorum will need the Golden State to remain relevant as he looks to leap past Mitt Romney in local polls leading up to the June 5 primary. New polls unveiled Wednesday found Santorum is already a national favorite over Romney, claiming 35 percent of voter support compared to only 26 percent for Romney, according to the Wall Street Journal.  

In California, Republican voters have warmed up to Santorum considerably in the last four months, but are also expressing growing dissatisfaction with the field of GOP presidential candidates, according to a separate Field Poll released Wednesday. 

The former Pennsylvania senator is preferred by 25 percent of the state's registered Republicans, a turn-around that has come partly at the expense of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose support in the state has plunged.

Santorum was supported by just 2 percent of California GOP voters in a Field Poll taken last November. His growing popularity since then has been driven in part by those who said they identify with the tea party or classify themselves as strongly conservative.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remained Republicans' top choice, getting support from 31 percent.

The survey's timing was key. Field interviewed Republicans Feb. 2-18, a period that included Santorum victories in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

Just as significant as Santorum's ascent is the growing unease among Republicans about the entire GOP presidential field.

A September Field Poll, taken when more candidates were in the race, found that 66 percent of Republicans were somewhat or very satisfied with their choices. That dropped to 57 percent in the most recent poll, with those saying they are very satisfied dropping from nearly one-in-five to just 10 percent.

Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said that type of decline is somewhat unusual because voters typically warm up to candidates over time.

As the party moves closer to choosing a nominee, its voters seem less confident that any of the candidates can beat President Barack Obama in the general election, he said.

"As they learn more about the candidates, they're seeing they're not as strong as they thought they might have been," DiCamillo said.

He said the back-and-forth nature of the race holds the possibility that California's June 5 primary might matter. If no candidate has a majority of delegates by then and the state is in play, the primary is likely to favor Romney even though his support has slipped recently.

"If that's the way it's looking in June, California will be a huge bounty," DiCamillo said.

California's 172 delegates are 15 percent of the 1,144 delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination. The survey said most delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district.

The state's Republicans are increasingly enamored of Sen. Ron Paul, whose support has increased from 5 percent in the November Field Poll to 16 percent in the latest survey.

Gingrich, who was previously ahead, now is favored by just 12 percent of Republicans.

Contact Kurt Wagner at jwagner@scu.edu or call (408) 554- 4849.  Tom Verdin of the Associated Press Contributed to this report.