Winning the Lottery: NBA Draft Edition

NBA teams lack clarity in determining top prospects for draft

On June 28, 2007, the Portland Trailblazers made a franchise-changing decision by selecting Ohio State superstar center, Greg Oden, with the first pick in the NBA Draft.  

What should have been celebrated as the night that propelled the Trailblazers into status as a Western Conference contender for years to come, this night has haunted Portland fans for over a decade.

The Portland Trailblazers passed on taking future ten-time all-star, Kevin Durant, with the coveted first pick of the NBA Draft. 

Instead they selected the injury-prone Oden whose knee injuries cut his career short. He never developed into the large expectation of being the first overall pick.

The Portland Trailblazers’ nightmare selection lands on a long list of players selected with a high draft pick in the NBA draft, who never pan out and eventually earn the title “bust.”

Basketball, more than other team sports, can see one player truly turn an entire franchise from last place to a championship-caliber team. 

When the Cleveland Cavaliers selected LeBron James in the 2003 NBA Draft, their selection immediately elevated their entire team into contenders in the Eastern Conference.  

The same can be said about the Los Angeles Lakers selecting future Hall of Famer, Magic Johnson, in 1979 as the team won the NBA Finals in Johnson’s rookie season.

In an era of blockbuster free agent signings forming “Super Teams,” building a championship-caliber team through the NBA draft has been a proven blueprint for success. 

Much how NCAA players are competing to become the first overall draft pick, teams also compete to intentionally lose their games or “tank” in order to receive a high draft pick. 

This is because the teams with the worst records at the end of each season often pick first in the draft before the following season. 

ESPN NBA draft expert, Jonathan Givony, has described this year’s draft to have some of the most unclear rankings in recent NBA Draft memory.   

 “Even for the teams that do win the 2020 lottery, no prospect has emerged as a clear No. 1 pick,” said Givony. “The talent in the top three relative to previous drafts is increasingly more difficult to discern.”

Last year, the NBA attempted to weaken teams’ incentives to intentionally lose their games for a high draft pick by lessening the odds that the teams with the worst records received the highest draft picks. 

In the 2019 NBA Lottery, the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies moved from the seventh and eighth worst records to picking first and second respectively.

Due to the lack of clarity of the top NBA draft player rankings along with the new lottery system, teams should feel less inclined to tank for the once highly coveted No.1  draft pick. 

Three of the top prospects in this years’ class all raise a series of questions about their place atop the rankings.  

The No.1 ranked player according to many experts is the University of Memphis center, James Wiseman. 

Wiseman played a total of three NCAA games before his suspension that involved receiving financial assistance from his former high school and current college coach, Penny Hardaway. 

Despite the suspension only lasting 12 games, Wiseman has chosen to not play for the rest of the season.

Now, scouts have only three games of Division 1 basketball to judge and forecast Wiseman’s future.

Perhaps the most intriguing prospect happens to be one of the most famous high school basketball players of all time, LaMelo Ball.  However, Ball’s future remains a mystery due to the lack of scouting opportunities for him.

While his peers spent the last two years competing against each other in organized grassroots leagues and showcases like the Nike Hoop Summit, Ball was playing sporadic minutes in Lithuania and headlining in his father’s ill-fated Junior Basketball Association league before hitting the prep school circuit with Ohio’s SPIRE Academy last season.

Ball, whose brother Lonzo Ball plays for the New Orleans Pelicans, has the most potential to be a breakout star in this year’s draft class.  However, the mystery behind his talent leads general managers and draft experts to question his future as an NBA player. 

RJ Hampton, a potential top-10 draft pick this year, plays in the National Basketball League (NBL) located in New Zealand and Australia with Ball and faces the same types of questions.

Due to the lack of scouting opportunities and distance between the U.S. and professional leagues like the NBL, the likelihood of determining the future success of top foreign players can be almost entirely luck. 

With the midway point of the season approaching, teams who seem to be destined for the draft lottery should not feel as confident as previous years. Picking the next breakout star in this year’s unproven draft class could be about as likely as winning the lottery.  

Contact Kieran Bradford at kbradford@scu.edu or call (408) 554-4852.