How the Giants Have Defied the Odds

San Francisco possesses the best record in MLB six months after projected to be bottom-feeders

The San Francisco Giants were not expected to be in the position they are in at the end of September, fighting for the best record in Major League Baseball and approaching the team’s first 100-win season since 2003.

After finishing with a 29-31 record in an abbreviated 2020 season, the Giants missed the postseason by a single game. “It is certainly going to be a goal of ours to be a playoff team next year,” said Giants’ president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (September 2020). One year later, the Giants have become a powerhouse; no team has won more games this season.

At the beginning of the season, FanGraphs projected San Francisco to have a 5.7% chance of making the playoffs. Five months later, the Giants were the first team in Major League Baseball to clinch a postseason berth. How did this team defy such low expectations?

Let’s not pretend this team is something it is not; the Giants’ roster makeup was not supposed to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in a daunting National League (NL) West division. An aging-veteran core composed of the likes of Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, with an unproven manager in Gabe Kapler at the helm made few question San Francisco’s lowly pre-season projections.

Nonetheless, there is a reason why baseball is not played on a computer. The Giants have dominated their competition putting up a walloping 97-53 record, along with the third best run differential (+181) in the majors.

With the Giants’ amazing record, one would assume the team would be relaxing as the regular season winds down, preparing for a first round bye in the playoffs and scouting potential NL Wild Card teams. Alas, that is not the case.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are sitting in the Giants’ rear-view mirror -- neck and neck with a record of 96-54. If San Francisco was in any other division in baseball, the Giants would be popping champagne bottles, easing the throttle of the regular season. With two weeks left in the regular season, hypothetical scenarios do not get your team closer to raising a World Series trophy. The Giants have to remain focused and continue fighting for the division crown in order to avoid a winner take all Wild Card game.

After a series victory versus the NL East leading Atlanta Braves, the Giants appear poised to persist onwards. Their schedule contains crucial series against a team fighting to stay alive in the San Diego Padres (twice) and six total games against bottom-feeders in Colorado and Arizona. The final two weeks of the regular season will be a big test for the team, and an even bigger test for manager Gabe Kapler in his quest to turn around his reputation. After failing to get his team above .500 in 2018 and 2019 with Philadelphia, the Phillies fired Kapler.

Only a few months later, Kapler was hired in San Francisco, inheriting the team from Hall-of-Fame manager Bruce Bochy. The roster Kapler assumed was not the abundance of talent that Bochy had in the early 2010s, but since his arrival, the Giants have been doing things the “right” way.

Players have raved about Kapler’s interpersonal skills and ability to build an ego-free clubhouse. The manager is instrumental in the success of rookies and the resurgence of veterans, including the newfound reputations for pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeScalfani.

Giants CEO Larry Baer called the communication between Kapler and the team’s executives “outstanding”.

“That relationship [between Zaidi and Kapler] has been A-plus,” Baer continued. “That’s important because no franchise in any sport is successful without that.”

The Giants have yet to go through any prolonged losing streak this season, a true testament to the teams’ chemistry and morale, starting from the top with Kapler and Zaidi..

With such an impressive record, is this season a championship-or-bust year for the Giants? Well, yes and no. In the short term, the Giants would love to capture another World Series ring and let their older players ride off into the sunset by becoming Giants for-life. In the long term, 2021 is not a championship-or-bust season for the Giants, moreover it marks a year of notable change for San Francisco baseball. The teams’ play has already surpassed expectations from fans, media, and the organization alike, all while reinvigorating energy into sellout crowds at Oracle Park: a much improved atmosphere from the lifeless crowds that have attended games since 2016.

As the regular season concludes, the Giants are fighting tooth and nail to remain in the top spot of the National League entering the playoffs. While well-deserved acknowledgements have gone to Zaidi and Kapler, the primary credit for the team’s success goes to the players. Up and down the Giants’ lineup, players accept their roles and battle every pitch of an at-bat. Their relentless approaches and well-timed hitting elicits an excitement in Giants fans reminiscent of the team’s championship runs in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

On paper, the Giants do not possess the same top-end talent as other elite teams like the Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers, but fans should be excited about the prospects of this team. While they have some of the magic of prior teams in them, the improvement across the board should not go unnoticed. This Giant’s team may end up falling just-short of previous championship teams in the last decade, but in the short term, this team has already made its mark to Giants fans across the country.

Contact Thomas Dunn at tdunn@scu.edu or call (408) 554-4852.